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Chain vs. Independent New Openings: Pre- and Post-Pandemic Comparison

Restaurantdata.com reviewed 465 weeks of new restaurant opening data to compare chain and independent activity before and after the pandemic. The records show a sustained change in the composition of new restaurant development. Chains accounted for approximately 1 in 5 new openings before March 2020. From 2021 through 2024, their share generally ranged from approximately 1 in 10 to 1 in 15, while independent operators represented more than 90% of recorded activity.

Key finding: Before the pandemic, chains represented approximately 21% of new restaurant openings. From 2021 through 2024, their share generally fell to 6–10%. Independent operators consequently accounted for more than 90% of the new-opening activity recorded during most of the post-pandemic period.

Key Trends in the 465-Week Comparison

• The change began abruptly: The sharp break in chain opening activity occurred during the week of March 26, 2020.
• Chain volume remained below its earlier range: Before the pandemic, Restaurantdata.com recorded approximately 200–250 weekly chain openings. More recent weekly activity has generally ranged from approximately 40–65.
• Independent operators increased their share: Independent restaurants represented approximately 79% of openings before the pandemic and more than 90% during most years from 2021 through 2024.
• Total opening activity also changed: Overall weekly opening volume declined from approximately 900–1,200 before the pandemic to approximately 550–650 in the later period.
• The gap has narrowed only gradually: Chain activity has recovered from its lowest point, but its share of total openings remains well below the pre-pandemic level.

Annual Data: Chain vs. Independent New Openings, 2019–2024

The table below presents annual representations of weekly chain and independent opening activity. The “% difference” column measures the gap between independent and chain openings relative to independent opening volume. A higher percentage indicates a wider difference between the two operator categories.

Source: Restaurantdata.com · 465 weeks of legal filing and restaurant development data · Compressed into annual representations · U.S. markets

* Opening counts are approximate and were read from the underlying chart data. They represent compressed annual views of weekly activity rather than full-year opening totals. The % difference column reflects the gap between independent and chain openings relative to independent opening volume. Data was compiled from 465 weeks of legal filing and restaurant development records.

The March 2020 Break in Opening Activity

The sharp decline in chain openings began during the week of March 26, 2020. Before that point, total new restaurant activity generally averaged 900–1,200 openings per week, including approximately 200–250 chain locations. In the later comparison period, weekly totals generally ranged from 550–650 openings, including approximately 40–65 chain locations.

Before the pandemic, approximately 1 in 5 newly recorded restaurants was affiliated with a chain. During most of the 2021–2024 period, the ratio shifted to approximately 1 chain location for every 10–15 openings. Chain development improved from its lowest point, but the category did not return to its earlier share of total activity.

The result is a new-opening market led primarily by independent and small multi-unit operators. Restaurantdata.com’s more recent analysis has also identified consistent activity among operators opening second, third, and fourth locations. That related pattern is examined in Small Independent Restaurant Groups Are Expanding Again.

Factors Behind the Change in Operator Mix

The Restaurantdata.com records establish the timing and scale of the change, although they do not assign a single cause. Several restaurant development conditions are consistent with the pattern observed after March 2020:

• More selective chain development: Many large operators reduced or delayed development plans while reviewing construction costs, store economics, labor availability, and franchisee performance.
• Smaller operating formats: Food halls, compact counter-service concepts, shared commercial kitchens, and limited-service models created additional entry points for independent operators.
• Changes in available restaurant space: Closures and lease turnover created opportunities for new operators to acquire previously built restaurant locations.
• Slower franchisee expansion: Some franchisees postponed additional units while concentrating capital and management resources on existing locations.

The longer-term pattern can also be compared with the January–June 2026 U.S. Restaurant Opening Cross-Tab Analysis, which examines operator size, service type, geography, location type, and regional concentration across 9,541 restaurant development records.