Breakthrough Breaking News From the Restaurant Investor Report, 1st half 2015 numbers are in.  Seattle area MSA, Full service independent restaurant closures increases 46% in the 1st half of 2015 from the last half of 2014.

As of June 30, 2015, the 6 month closing rate for long-time (over 3 years in business) full service restaurants increased by 46% from 2.7% in the second half of 2014 to a 3.9% rate in the first half of 2015. A solid 93.4% of full service restaurants owned by sole proprietors and regional chains remained in business.  Regarding chain restaurants of all service types in the MSA, the closure rate was 2.01.%

Regarding Mexican Restaurant closures and successes: Independents and regional chains operating casual dining Mexican/Latin concepts closed 4.83%.  The entire Mexican/Latin fast casual chains group saw a closing rate of 1.46%.  Chipotle for example had 1/8 of  1% closures in the period. Mexican/Latin fast casual independents closed 4.36%.

MSA Chain region closures 1st half 2015:

Las Vegas: 3.76%

Kansas City, 3.21%

Indianapolis, 2.69%

Boston, .97%

Jacksonville, 1.08%

Nashville, 1.06%

Washington DC, 2.28%

NY, 2.51%

Chicago, 2.41%

The independent and regional chains data set is dominated by full service restaurants (FSR) with 71.5% offering table service.  Coverage for this data set began on July 1, 2014.  Full year statistics are available on the number of restaurants which remain open and the number closed.

The restaurant chains data set is dominated by counter service restaurants (CSR) with 82.3% of locations offering counter service (CSR).  There are now more Fast Casual locations (44,808) in this data set than full service restaurants (35,757).  QSR locations represent the biggest slice of the pie with 61.3% of the total.

Some specific current MSA *chain examples include granting the # 1 slot to Boston, MA for having less than a 1% closing rates for chain restaurants in their region. Las Vegas performed the worse with a 3.76% closing rate in the period. In the middle is New Orleans with a 2.05% closing rate.

* To be considered a chain, a company must have 20 units or more. Any less is considered an independent and/or regional multi-unit.

Growing Concepts of Multi Unit Operators

Concepts that have grown by at least 5% (if less than 50 units).

Dallas, TX-based TEXAS DE BRAZIL CHURRASCARIA (founded 1998) has increased by 19 units, from 30 to 49 (63% growth) and entered into AL, DC, OK, Mexico, South Korea and the UAE.  This upscale South American steakhouse is open for lunch and dinner, with a $15-$50+ per person check average.   The restaurants have full bar and average seating for about 200.  Catering and banquet services are available.  Trading areas are AL, CO, DC, FL, IL, LA, MI, NV, NY, OH, OK, PA, TN, TX, UT, VA, Aruba, Mexico, Puerto Rico, South Korea, Trinidad And Tobago and the UAE.

Bridgeview, IL-based PATIO RESTAURANT (founded 1977) has increased by 1 unit, from 5 to 6 (20% growth).  This family/casual bbq concept is open for lunch and dinner, with an $8-$20+ per person check average.  Beer and wine are served and seating is for about 200.  Catering, banquet, drive-thru and online ordering services are available.  All the locations are in IL.

North Vancouver, BC-based BEAN AROUND THE WORLD COFFEES AND COWBOY COFFEE (founded 1990) has increased by 3 units, from 23 to 26 (13% growth).  This quick serve coffee concept is open for breakfast, lunch and dinner hours, with a $4-$12+ per person price range.  Average seating is for about 20.  All the units are in BC.

Emerging and Re-emerging Concepts

Concepts with 20 units or less who grew by at least 2 units.

Bloomington, IL-based MEAT HEADS BURGERS & FRIES (founded 2007) has increased by 4 units, from 12 to 16 (33% growth) and entered into IN.  The restaurants are fast casual, open for lunch and dinner.  Per person price range is $4-$12+ and average seating is for about 60.  Trading areas
are IL and IN.

Philadelphia, PA-based PIETRO\’S COAL OVEN PIZZERIA has increased 1 unit for the Estia Greek Tavern concept, from 1 to 2 (100% concept growth) and also opened a new concept called Pietro\’s Pizzeria & Birreria (1 unit).  Other company concepts include Estia (1) and Pietro\’s Coal Oven Pizzeria (2). Overall company increase was from 4 to 6 (50% company growth).  The restaurants are family/casual, serving Italian, pizza and Greek cuisines.  Per person check average is $8-$20+, with full bar and seating for around 150.  Catering, delivery and banquet services are offered.
Trading areas are NJ and PA.

Chicago, IL-based YOLK has increased by 3 units, from 4 to 7 (75% growth) and entered into IN and TX.  This family/casual concept specializes in breakfast foods and is open for breakfast and lunch.  Per person check average is $6-$15+.  The restaurants have seating for about 150.  Catering and private party services are available.  Trading areas are IL, IN and TX.

Repeat Growers

Concepts previously written about in the past 18 months.
 

Pompano Beach, FL-based ANTHONY\’S COAL FIRED PIZZA (founded 2002) has increased by 4 units, from 48 to 52 (8% growth) and entered into MA.  This family/casual pizzeria concept is open for lunch and dinner, with a $10-$30+ per person check average.  Locations serve beer and wine and seat about 70.  Catering is available.  Trading areas are DE, FL, MA, NJ, NY and PA.  We last featured this concept on 9/9/14 (30% growth).

Portland, ME-based AROMA JOE\’S (founded 2000) has increased by 9 units, from 27 to 36 (33% growth).  This quick serve coffee shop is open for breakfast, lunch and dinner hours, with a $4-$12+ per person price range.  Drive-thru service is available.  Stores trade in ME and NH.  We last wrote about this concept on 5/27/14 (80% growth).

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