Chain vs. Independent New Openings: Pre- and Post-Pandemic Comparison

Restaurantdata.com tracked 465 weeks of new restaurant opening data to compare chain versus independent new openings before and after the pandemic. The data reveals a dramatic and lasting structural shift: chain restaurants accounted for roughly 1 in 5 new openings pre-pandemic, but today account for just 1 in 10with independent operators now dominating new restaurant formation at a rate not seen before March 2020.

📊 Key finding: Pre-pandemic, chains represented ~21% of all new restaurant openings (approximately 1 in 5). Post-pandemic, that share collapsed to 6–8% (approximately 1 in 10–15). Independent operators now account for over 90% of all new weekly restaurant openings in the U.S.

Annual Data: Chain vs. Independent New Openings 2019–2024

The table below shows annual new opening counts for chain and independent restaurants, along with the percentage difference between the two. The “% difference” column reflects the gap between independent and chain openings; the higher the number, the more dominant independent openings are relative to chains.

Source: Restaurantdata.com · 465 weeks of legal filing data · Compressed into annual representations · U.S. markets

* Opening counts are approximate, read from chart data. The % difference column reflects the percentage gap between independent and chain openings — higher values indicate greater independent dominance. Data compressed from 465 weeks of legal filing records into annual representations.

What the Pandemic Did to Chain vs. Independent Openings

The big drop in chain openings began the week of March 26, 2020. Prior to that week, new restaurant openings were averaging 900–1,200 per week, with approximately 200–250 being new chain locations. Current weekly averages are 550–650 with just 40–65 new chain openings per week.

Pre-pandemic, at roughly 79% difference, approximately 1 in 5 new restaurants was a chain store. Post-pandemic, with the difference now above 90%, the ratio has shifted to approximately 1 in 10–15. The gap is improving slowly but remains dramatically wider than pre-pandemic levels.

This structural shift has significant implications for foodservice suppliers and vendors. Independent operators, who now account for over 90% of new weekly openings, make purchasing decisions faster and with less bureaucracy than chain buyers — making them a high-value target for early-stage outreach. See also: Small Restaurant Group Expansion Is Surging →

Why Independent Openings Are Up and Chain Openings Are Down

Several converging factors explain the post-pandemic composition shift:

• Chain expansion discipline: Major chains became more selective post-pandemic, slowing unit growth to prioritize profitability over footprint expansion
• Independent entrepreneurship surge: Displaced workers and career changers entered the restaurant industry as operators, fueling a wave of independent concepts
• Lower barriers to entry: Ghost kitchens, food halls, and smaller format concepts enabled independent entry at lower capital cost
• Franchisee caution: Many existing franchisees paused expansion during the pandemic and have been slower to resume than corporate-driven chain development