Published: April 23, 2026
RESTAURANTDATA.COM PROPRIETARY RESEARCH
U.S. Restaurant New Opening Cross-Tab Analysis
2020–2025 Six-Year Study
This report presents cross-tabulation analysis across six years of verified new restaurant opening data. It intersects cuisine, geography, location type, service segment, and operator type in combinations not available in the annual reports. Based on 104,000+ projected opening records sourced from state filings, legal filings, and building permits across 49 states.
Data covers projected full-year estimates. All brand names removed. For licensing or data partnership inquiries contact Restaurantdata.com.
This report may be shared and distributed on a non-exclusive, royalty-free basis, provided that full attribution is given to Restaurantdata.com and no modifications are made to the data, findings, tables, charts, or conclusions.
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Preferred citation: “Source: Restaurantdata.com, U.S. Restaurant New Opening Cross-Tab Analysis (2020–2025), published April 23, 2026.”
1. Cuisine Category × Location Type: Six-Year Totals
Shows where each cuisine is actually opening: Free Standing vs. Shopping Center / Mixed Use. Mexican/Latin and Café show near-equal splits between location types. Bar Food is overwhelmingly a Shopping Center / Mixed Use format (67% of all Bar Food openings). BBQ and Chicken skew heavily Free Standing. Coffee/Tea has shifted toward Shopping Center / Mixed Use over the period.
| Cuisine | Free Standing | SC / Mixed Use | Mixed Residential | 6-Yr Total | SC/MU % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mexican/Latin | 7,824 | 7,242 | 190 | 15,256 | 47% |
| Café | 3,376 | 3,528 | 194 | 7,098 | 50% |
| Coffee/Tea | 2,560 | 3,080 | 138 | 5,778 | 53% |
| Pizza | 2,376 | 2,442 | 98 | 4,916 | 50% |
| Bar Food | 1,274 | 2,844 | 114 | 4,232 | 67% |
| Asian | 1,298 | 2,568 | 106 | 3,972 | 65% |
| Chicken | 1,786 | 1,766 | 58 | 3,610 | 49% |
| Burger | 1,310 | 1,216 | 48 | 2,574 | 47% |
| BBQ | 1,440 | 1,076 | 26 | 2,542 | 42% |
| Italian | 818 | 1,058 | 54 | 1,930 | 55% |
2. Cuisine Category × U.S. Region: Six-Year Totals
Mexican/Latin dominates in every region but especially in the Southeast (4,774) and West (4,028). BBQ is a Southeast-heavy category (934 of 2,542 total = 37%). Coffee/Tea is strong in both the Southeast and West. Bar Food shows its highest concentration in the Southeast (1,388). Asian is disproportionately concentrated in the West (1,494 of 3,972 = 38%). Italian is notably weak outside the Northeast and Southeast.
| Cuisine | Northeast | Southeast | Midwest | Southwest | West | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mexican/Latin | 2,328 | 4,774 | 1,896 | 2,230 | 4,028 | 15,256 |
| Bar Food | 602 | 1,388 | 732 | 592 | 918 | 4,232 |
| Café | 1,498 | 2,254 | 1,002 | 618 | 1,726 | 7,098 |
| Coffee/Tea | 658 | 1,842 | 798 | 646 | 1,834 | 5,778 |
| Pizza | 1,106 | 1,538 | 752 | 484 | 1,036 | 4,916 |
| Chicken | 584 | 1,288 | 528 | 428 | 782 | 3,610 |
| Burger | 300 | 834 | 396 | 326 | 718 | 2,574 |
| BBQ | 242 | 934 | 394 | 364 | 608 | 2,542 |
| Asian | 876 | 842 | 374 | 386 | 1,494 | 3,972 |
| Italian | 508 | 662 | 162 | 204 | 394 | 1,930 |
3. Cuisine Category × Year: Trend Analysis
The six-year trajectory reveals three distinct stories. Mexican/Latin grew steadily every year, peaking in 2024. Bar Food was essentially absent through 2022, then surged from 40 projected in 2020 to 1,984 in 2024. Coffee/Tea grew through 2024 then declined in 2025, suggesting possible saturation. Pizza is in a clear multi-year decline, falling from 830 in 2020 to 638 in 2025. Asian showed the most volatile trajectory, tripling from 414 in 2020 to 1,148 in 2024 before settling at 818 in 2025.
| Cuisine | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 6-Yr Total | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mexican/Latin | 1,768 | 2,288 | 2,508 | 2,592 | 3,686 | 2,414 | 15,256 | +37% |
| Bar Food | 40 | 28 | 42 | 646 | 1,984 | 1,492 | 4,232 | +3630% |
| Café | 1,096 | 1,164 | 1,322 | 1,206 | 1,340 | 970 | 7,098 | +-11% |
| Coffee/Tea | 710 | 942 | 1,088 | 1,066 | 1,178 | 794 | 5,778 | +12% |
| Pizza | 830 | 906 | 786 | 870 | 886 | 638 | 4,916 | +-23% |
| Asian | 414 | 460 | 480 | 652 | 1,148 | 818 | 3,972 | +98% |
| Chicken | 534 | 596 | 630 | 596 | 692 | 562 | 3,610 | +5% |
| Burger | 402 | 444 | 398 | 458 | 500 | 372 | 2,574 | +-7% |
| BBQ | 434 | 470 | 482 | 394 | 452 | 310 | 2,542 | +-29% |
| Italian | 280 | 302 | 308 | 284 | 394 | 362 | 1,930 | +29% |
4. Region × Location Type × Year
The Free Standing → Shopping Center / Mixed Use shift happened fastest in the Northeast and Southeast. The Northeast went from 2,334 Free Standing openings in 2020 to just 458 in 2025, an 80% decline. The Southeast went from 2,260 to 1,482 (-34%) while Shopping Center / Mixed Use in the Southeast grew from 1,776 to 3,832 (+116%). The West and Midwest show similar trajectories but with less extreme magnitude. The Southwest has the smallest absolute shift but still crossed over in 2023.
Northeast
| Location Type | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Free Standing | 2,334 | 2,850 | 3,244 | 1,294 | 614 | 458 |
| Shopping Center / Mixed Use | 1,030 | 1,058 | 340 | 1,392 | 2,574 | 2,098 |
| Mixed Residential | 12 | 0 | 36 | 668 | 704 | 370 |
Southeast
| Location Type | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Free Standing | 2,260 | 2,974 | 4,148 | 2,334 | 2,310 | 1,482 |
| Shopping Center / Mixed Use | 1,776 | 1,790 | 1,346 | 3,606 | 5,462 | 3,832 |
| Mixed Residential | 0 | 4 | 2 | 94 | 16 | 28 |
Midwest
| Location Type | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Free Standing | 1,082 | 1,712 | 2,110 | 954 | 1,064 | 604 |
| Shopping Center / Mixed Use | 396 | 424 | 256 | 1,154 | 2,030 | 1,266 |
| Mixed Residential | 4 | 0 | 2 | 62 | 40 | 16 |
Southwest
| Location Type | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Free Standing | 958 | 982 | 1,318 | 688 | 638 | 552 |
| Shopping Center / Mixed Use | 736 | 672 | 528 | 1,024 | 1,602 | 1,348 |
| Mixed Residential | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 16 | 2 |
West
| Location Type | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Free Standing | 1,716 | 2,476 | 2,964 | 1,362 | 1,028 | 638 |
| Shopping Center / Mixed Use | 1,472 | 1,300 | 912 | 2,974 | 4,832 | 3,602 |
| Mixed Residential | 6 | 0 | 4 | 144 | 92 | 86 |
5. Region × Year: Total Opening Volume
The Southeast is the single largest region in every year and accounts for 33,464 projected openings across the six-year period, 32% of the national total. The West is the second-largest at 25,608 (25%). The Northeast held third through 2022 before being overtaken by the West in 2023. The 2024 surge was felt across every region but most dramatically in the Southeast (+29% vs. 2023) and West (+33%).
| Region | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 6-Yr Total | % of National |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Southeast | 4,036 | 4,768 | 5,496 | 6,034 | 7,788 | 5,342 | 33,464 | 32.1% |
| West | 3,194 | 3,776 | 3,880 | 4,480 | 5,952 | 4,326 | 25,608 | 24.5% |
| Northeast | 3,376 | 3,908 | 3,620 | 3,354 | 3,892 | 2,926 | 21,076 | 20.2% |
| Midwest | 1,482 | 2,136 | 2,368 | 2,170 | 3,134 | 1,886 | 13,176 | 12.6% |
| Southwest | 1,694 | 1,654 | 1,846 | 1,722 | 2,256 | 1,902 | 11,074 | 10.6% |
6. Service Segment × Region × Year
Based on classified records only coverage varies by year (30–97% of all openings). Casual/Family Dining dominates in every region in every year. Fast Casual is strongest in the Southeast and West. Quick Serve shows the sharpest decline across all regions from 2020–2021 peaks. Upscale Dining is growing fastest in the West nearly tripling from 4 projected openings in 2020 to 110 in 2025 and the Southeast, where it grew from 34 to 74. This likely reflects both post-pandemic luxury dining recovery and the concentration of higher-income mixed-use developments in coastal markets.
Casual/Family
| Region | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 6-Yr Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Northeast | 2,146 | 2,682 | 2,742 | 1,454 | 448 | 362 | 9,834 |
| Southeast | 1,984 | 2,610 | 3,418 | 2,394 | 1,466 | 978 | 12,850 |
| Midwest | 652 | 1,070 | 1,440 | 880 | 588 | 352 | 4,982 |
| Southwest | 728 | 914 | 1,160 | 744 | 534 | 506 | 4,586 |
| West | 1,548 | 2,128 | 2,396 | 1,796 | 1,198 | 704 | 9,770 |
Fast Casual
| Region | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 6-Yr Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Northeast | 688 | 858 | 596 | 356 | 176 | 236 | 2,910 |
| Southeast | 1,176 | 1,404 | 1,284 | 694 | 622 | 590 | 5,770 |
| Midwest | 444 | 818 | 592 | 296 | 240 | 206 | 2,596 |
| Southwest | 620 | 580 | 460 | 208 | 144 | 160 | 2,172 |
| West | 1,008 | 1,190 | 988 | 548 | 502 | 468 | 4,704 |
Quick Serve
| Region | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 6-Yr Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Northeast | 436 | 346 | 256 | 228 | 66 | 82 | 1,414 |
| Southeast | 678 | 596 | 738 | 604 | 308 | 240 | 3,164 |
| Midwest | 300 | 224 | 316 | 222 | 118 | 88 | 1,268 |
| Southwest | 278 | 126 | 210 | 182 | 78 | 82 | 956 |
| West | 450 | 422 | 486 | 410 | 166 | 140 | 2,074 |
Upscale Dining
| Region | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 6-Yr Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Northeast | 14 | 10 | 12 | 20 | 24 | 32 | 112 |
| Southeast | 34 | 48 | 14 | 32 | 62 | 74 | 264 |
| Midwest | 8 | 10 | 6 | 6 | 14 | 14 | 58 |
| Southwest | 12 | 16 | 6 | 18 | 22 | 30 | 104 |
| West | 4 | 8 | 4 | 54 | 100 | 110 | 280 |
7. Independent vs. Chain × Region × Year
Chain openings are most concentrated in the Southeast, accounting for 37% of all chain activity across the six years. The Southeast is the only region where chain openings exceeded 700 projected in 2024 and 2025 (796 and 718 respectively). The West showed the largest chain growth from 2023–2024, nearly doubling from 316 to 528. Independent restaurants dominate in every region in every year, but the independent share has been rising particularly in the Northeast (97% in 2023) and West (93% in 2023).
Independent openings by region
| Region | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 6-Yr Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Southeast | 3,530 | 4,272 | 4,922 | 5,500 | 6,992 | 4,624 | 29,840 |
| West | 2,936 | 3,534 | 3,640 | 4,164 | 5,424 | 3,812 | 23,510 |
| Northeast | 3,146 | 3,708 | 3,478 | 3,198 | 3,748 | 2,764 | 20,042 |
| Midwest | 1,260 | 1,884 | 2,160 | 2,006 | 2,924 | 1,682 | 11,916 |
| Southwest | 1,406 | 1,412 | 1,720 | 1,560 | 2,056 | 1,656 | 9,810 |
Chain openings by region
| Region | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 6-Yr Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Southeast | 506 | 496 | 574 | 534 | 796 | 718 | 3,624 |
| West | 258 | 242 | 240 | 316 | 528 | 514 | 2,098 |
| Northeast | 230 | 200 | 142 | 156 | 144 | 162 | 1,034 |
| Midwest | 222 | 252 | 208 | 164 | 210 | 204 | 1,260 |
| Southwest | 288 | 242 | 126 | 162 | 200 | 246 | 1,264 |
8. Cuisine × Location Type: Year-by-Year Trajectories
The following tables show how each major cuisine shifted between Free Standing and Shopping Center / Mixed Use formats over the six years. The crossover point, when Shopping Center / Mixed Use overtook Free Standing, differs by cuisine and reveals which categories led vs. lagged the overall market shift.
Mexican/Latin: location type by year
| Location Type | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 6-Yr Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Free Standing | 1,138 | 1,638 | 2,114 | 1,034 | 1,190 | 710 | 7,824 |
| Shopping Center / Mixed Use | 630 | 650 | 388 | 1,480 | 2,438 | 1,656 | 7,242 |
Bar Food: location type by year
| Location Type | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 6-Yr Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Free Standing | 22 | 14 | 34 | 158 | 624 | 422 | 1,274 |
| Shopping Center / Mixed Use | 16 | 14 | 8 | 446 | 1,314 | 1,046 | 2,844 |
Coffee/Tea: location type by year
| Location Type | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 6-Yr Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Free Standing | 378 | 552 | 844 | 358 | 260 | 168 | 2,560 |
| Shopping Center / Mixed Use | 326 | 390 | 242 | 640 | 872 | 610 | 3,080 |
Pizza: location type by year
| Location Type | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 6-Yr Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Free Standing | 490 | 626 | 626 | 310 | 198 | 126 | 2,376 |
| Shopping Center / Mixed Use | 338 | 280 | 160 | 508 | 658 | 498 | 2,442 |
Chicken: location type by year
| Location Type | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 6-Yr Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Free Standing | 306 | 400 | 488 | 244 | 192 | 156 | 1,786 |
| Shopping Center / Mixed Use | 226 | 194 | 140 | 332 | 480 | 394 | 1,766 |
9. Summary: Cross-Tab Findings
1. Bar Food is a Shopping Center / Mixed Use format.
67% of all Bar Food openings over six years occurred in Shopping Center / Mixed Use locations. It is not a Free Standing category. This is one of the clearest cuisine-location correlations in the dataset and directly relevant to landlords, food service equipment vendors, and operators evaluating site selection.
2. Coffee/Tea has crossed over.
In 2020–2022, Coffee/Tea was predominantly Free Standing (378, 552, 844). By 2023–2025, Shopping Center / Mixed Use became the dominant location type (640, 872, 610 vs. 358, 260, 168). The category followed the overall market shift but with a clear 2022–2023 inflection.
3. BBQ and Chicken remain Free Standing.
Despite the overall market shift, BBQ (1,440 Free Standing vs. 1,076 SC/MU) and Chicken (1,786 vs. 1,766) continue to skew toward standalone formats. These categories lag the broader location type transformation.
4. The Southeast is where new restaurant formation happens.
33,464 projected openings across six years, 32% of the national total. Every cuisine, every segment, every location type reaches its highest absolute volume in the Southeast. For vendors targeting new unit openings, this is the highest-priority territory.
5. The Northeast is in structural decline.
Free Standing openings in the Northeast collapsed from 2,334 projected in 2020 to 458 in 2025, an 80% decline in five years. Shopping Center / Mixed Use has grown but not fully offset the loss. Total Northeast openings peaked in 2021 (3,908) and have not recovered.
6. Upscale Dining is growing, but only in two places.
The West (4 projected openings in 2020 → 110 in 2025) and Southeast (34 → 74) are driving all of the Upscale Dining growth. The Midwest and Northeast are flat or declining. This correlates directly with the concentration of high-income mixed-use development in coastal and Sun Belt markets.
7. Chain growth is a Southeast and West story.
The Southeast accounted for 3,624 of the 8,204 total projected chain openings across six years, 44%. The West is second at 2,098 (26%). The Northeast and Midwest together represent only 22% of chain activity despite their population size.
8. Asian cuisine nearly tripled, then partially corrected.
414 projected in 2020, 1,148 in 2024, 818 in 2025. The growth concentrated in the West (1,494 of 3,972 total = 38%) and reflects the expansion of Japanese, Korean, Vietnamese, and pan-Asian concepts into mainstream dining corridors. The 2025 partial correction may reflect normalization after pandemic-era pent-up expansion.
All figures are projected full-year estimates based on verified tracking data from Restaurantdata.com. Data covers 2020–2025. Brand names excluded. For licensing inquiries contact Restaurantdata.com.