All posts by Restaurantdata

Bobbing up and bobbing down, but the floor is rising

Net new activity. Week ending 06/26/2020. More trend line firming. U.S. restaurants have a  higher floor than the previous month. Chain store openings still muted in comparison.  Extraordinary, permanent closings are NOT happening yet.

 

Q&A- Typical questions,

1. Q- How can there be any net new openings at all right now?

A-It’s a big country and enthusiasm is softened but not fully gone. There are also deals in the pipeline that have yet to come to fruition.

2. Q-Why would anyone open a sit-down restaurant today?

A- (opinion) Sit-down restaurants are a long held bastion for independent operators. It has never changed and will take more time for a greater shift. In addition chains are seemingly (by and large) better at adopting the technologies of today in having well functioning apps/technology and the intimidation factor is high for many independent operators.

3. Q- Where do you get your information?

A-Only legal filings of public information. For over 23 years, we obtain new filings issued by states and municipalities.

4. Q- How can the numbers be so close week to week?

A- The U.S. herd mentality is real and lives in the land of the restaurant business. On our end we display what comes through the legal filings channels, unabated.

Independents keep marching on with new restaurants, restaurant chain stores not so much

Chain store operators are still reserving their fire power regarding expansion for a later day in the days of COVID. 

Slightly, overall net new openings are swinging upward. New sit down  restaurants are continuously outpacing counter service.

Q&A- Typical questions,

1. Q- How can there be any net new openings at all right now?

A-It’s a big country and enthusiasm is softened but not fully gone. There are also deals in the pipeline that have yet to come to fruition.

2. Q-Why would anyone open a sit-down restaurant today?

A- (opinion) Sit-down restaurants are a long held bastion for independent operators. It has never changed and will take more time for a greater shift. In addition chains are seemingly (by and large) better at adopting the technologies of today in having well functioning apps/technology and the intimidation factor is high for many independent operators.

3. Q- Where do you get your information?

A-Only legal filings of public information. For over 23 years, we obtain new filings issued by states and municipalities.

4. Q- How can the numbers be so close week to week?

A- The U.S. herd mentality is real and lives in the land of the restaurant business. On our end we display what comes through the legal filings channels, unabated.

Last week there was a significant dip

Weekly net new restaurant openings week ending 06/12/2020. Displayed is the biggest drop in beverage license applications since prior to COVID-19 shutdowns.

 

 

Q&A- Typical questions,

1. Q- How can there be any net new openings at all right now?

A-It’s a big country and enthusiasm is softened but not fully gone. There are also deals in the pipeline that have yet to come to fruition.

2. Q-Why would anyone open a sit-down restaurant today?

A- (opinion) Sit-down restaurants are a long held bastion for independent operators. It has never changed and will take more time for a greater shift. In addition chains are seemingly (by and large) better at adopting the technologies of today in having well functioning apps/technology and the intimidation factor is high for many independent operators.

3. Q- Where do you get your information?

A-Legal filings only of public information. For more than 23 years, we obtain new filings issued by states and municipalities.

4. Q- How can the numbers be so close week to week?

A- The U.S. herd mentality is real and lives in the land of the restaurant business. On our end we display what comes through the legal filings channels, unabated.

Yes even now there is restaurant growth

Throughout our collective  COVID experiences restaurant activity and growth seem to come to a halt. But in reality growth has never stopped. New openings have marched on throughout the entire period. Chain growth is ticking up and there are new restaurant growers right now!

Data and graphs paint the picture:

 

 

 

 

Q&A- Typical questions we are asked:

1. Q- How can there be any net new openings at all right now?

A-It’s a big country and enthusiasm is softened but not fully gone. There are also deals in the pipeline that have yet to come to fruition.

2. Q-Why would anyone open a sit-down restaurant today?

A- (opinion) Sit-down restaurants are a long held bastion for independent operators. It has never changed and will take time to shift some more. In addition chains are seemingly (by and large) better at adopting the technologies of today in having well functioning apps/technology and the intimidation factor is real for many independent operators.

3. Q- Where do you get your information?

A-Legal filings only of public information. For more than 23 years, we obtain new filings issued by states and municipalities.

4. Q- How can the numbers be so close week to week?

A- The U.S. herd mentality is real and lives in the land of the restaurant business. On our end we display what comes through the legal filings channels, unabated.

Eerily consistent amounts of new openings in the days of COVID-19

Past weeks counts.  Weekly Net New Opening counts: Sit-Down versus Counter-Service and Chain Stores versus Independents -Week ending 05/29/20.

Eerily in the same volumes versus recent weeks. We are rumbling along the bottom, the trend line is clear! The floor is very close to 315 net new filings per week.

-Net new openings Independent-wise are (still) stubbornly more than 50% sit-down.

Q&A- Typical questions we are asked:

1. Q- How can there be any net new openings at all right now?

     A-It’s a big country and enthusiasm is softened but not fully gone. There are also deals in the pipeline that have yet to come to fruition.

2. Q-Why would anyone open a sit-down restaurant today?

       A- (opinion) Sit-down restaurants are a long held bastion for independent operators. It has never changed and will take time to shift some more. In addition chains are seemingly (by and large) better at adopting the technologies of today in having well functioning apps/technology and the intimidation factor is real for many independent operators.

3. Q- Where do you get your information?

     A-Legal filings only of public information. For more than 23 years, we obtain new filings issued by states and municipalities.

  4. Q- How can the numbers be so close week to week?

     A- The U.S. herd mentality is real and lives in the land of the restaurant business.  On our end we display what comes through the legal filings channels, unabated.

 

Net New Restaurant Filings-week ending 05/22/2020

Past weeks counts.  Weekly Net New Opening counts and Sit-Down versus Counter-Service openings week ending 05/22/20.

No discernible change from the prior week. We seem to be rumbling along the bottom. The floor seems to me right around 300 net new filings per week.

-Net new openings Independent-wise are (still) stubbornly more than 50% sit-down.

Q&A- Typical questions we are asked:

1. Q- How can there be any net new openings at all right now?

     A-It’s a big country and enthusiasm is softened but not fully gone. There are also deals in the pipeline that have yet to come to fruition.

2. Q-Why would anyone open a sit-down restaurant today?

       A- (opinion) Sit-down restaurants are a long held bastion for independent operators. It has never changed and will take time to shift some more. In addition chains are seemingly (by and large) better at adopting the technologies of today in having well functioning apps/technology and the intimidation factor is real for many independent operators.

3. Q- Where do you get your information?

     A-Legal filings only of public information. For more than 23 years, we obtain new filings issued by states and municipalities.

 

New Restaurant Openings Counts-week ending 05/15/20

Past weeks counts. Net New Openings, week ending 05/15/20. Restaurant count activity is status quo for Covid times.

New trends, no trends and counter trends-

Activity

In looking at this week’s numbers we’re on the cusp of two full months of data. Some comments:

-Chains are still on almost complete lock-down on any new activity. Filing trends are 1/5 of Pre-Covid times whereas Independents are close to 1/2.

-Net new openings Independent-wise are stubbornly more than 50% sit-down.

Q&A- Typical questions we are asked:

1. Q- How can there be any net new openings at all right now?

     A-It’s a big country and enthusiasm is softened but not fully gone. There are also deals in the pipeline that have yet to come to fruition.

2. Q-Why would anyone open a sit-down restaurant today?

      A- (opinion) Sit-down restaurants are a long held bastion for independent operators. It has never changed and will take time to shift some more. In addition chains are seemingly (by and large) better at adopting the technologies of today in having well functioning apps/technology and the intimidation factor is real for many independent operators.

3. Q- Where do you get your information?

    A-Legal filings only of public information. For the past 23 years, we obtain new filings that are issued by states and municipalities.

The likely move to Ex-Urban restaurants is taking shape in the days of COVID-19

Net New openings this week ending 05/08/2020- 316.

Other points of light: 

*28 of the 316 new locations openings are chain stores. Except for a handful, the remainder are in non city-centric locations.  

*268 are independent filings (90%), Another all time high compared to chain openings (only 10%).

*Sit-down Service- 165, Sit-down Independents are moving away from the city centers. Not many are in cities.

*Counter Service- 132

There has been a teetering of near 50/50 sit down vs. counter service from what had been 75 /25 (sit-down compared to counter)

Clarifications:

(1) Counts of sit-down or counter service includes bar/restaurants. In the past sit-down new openings used to be 3/4 of all new openings.

(2) Of the 365,000 sit-down restaurants in the U.S.  less than 12,000 are chain restaurants.

(3) Normal net new openings prior to Covid-19 days averaged between 600-850 new openings per week for more than 20 years.

Restaurant Activity in the days of COVID-19

New restaurant openings and new restaurant filing activity display

Week ending 04/30/2020

We have added a new table, New opening counts of Counter Service versus Sit-down Service and new openings of Independent local stores versus chain local stores:

One bottom line is apparent within the addition of the service sector chart since the days of Covid: Chains have had a significant slowdown of new units compared to independents. In past times chains were 1 of 3.75 new openings and currently (on average) 1 of 7.5 new openings. The shift toward counter service is also revealed.

As part of our normal course of daily work we evaluate the restaurant landscape and offer granular location and owner data for clients. We are now publishing real (no duplication) counts of new opening restaurants in the U.S.  each week during the COVID-19 crisis. 

Pre COVID-19,  net new openings counts ranged between 550-850 new openings per week in the U.S.   Most operators file for their new businesses well in advance and optimism (plus change) never ends.

The disparity between Raw and Net is a result of filing duplication, errors and invalid legal filings that do not pertain to real activity. Our staff discerns each filing accordingly.

Raw filings to Net New Opening Restaurant Counts in the Days of Corona.

New restaurant openings and new restaurant filing activity display:

As part of our normal course of work on a daily basis we evaluate the restaurant landscape and offer granular location and owner data for clients. We are now publishing real (no duplication) counts of new opening restaurants in the U.S.  each week during the COVID-19 crisis. 

Some state and municipal filing outlets are currently vacillating from offline to online creating unusual streams of filing tranches. This is displayed in last week’s bump in counts.

 

Pre COVID-19,  net new openings counts ranged between 550-850 new openings per week in the U.S.   Most operators file for their new businesses well in advance and optimism (plus change) never ends.

The disparity between Raw and Net is a result of filing duplication, errors and invalid legal filings that do not pertain to real activity. Our staff discerns each filing accordingly.

           
             
             
             
             
             

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